The Financial Stability Plan: Take Two

More details have emerged regarding this particular piece of the stimulus package. I felt that some of the details were worth a correction on my part.

The affordable refinance program is only available to borrowers who have loans that are owned/securitized by Fannie and Freddie. This reduces the number available to utilize the program, in particular among minorities and low income households. Studies have found that minorities were much more likely to receive a sub prime loan, even if their credit qualified them for a prime one, than other groups. If the loan was such that is cannot be conforming, then it will not be purchased by Fannie or Freddie. As such a higher proportion of low income and minority borrowers will be excluded from the program. Indirectly the program states it will not work with any nonconforming loan, (since they are not purchased by Fannie and Freddie).

The loan modification program comes right out and says that nonconforming loans do not qualify....well...it says it in the Q&A for housing counselors (how many regular joes are going to dig that deep?). This means once again that a higher percentage of minority and low income borrowers will be excluded from utilizing the program due to higher incidents of nonconforming loans. This is a real shame, since the loan modification program targets loans before they go bad, a proactive move I approve of.

Not all of the news is bad news. One of my criticisms of the program hinged on the high dollar figure, Roughly three quarters of a million, that qualifying homes could have. By requiring qualified loans to be conforming this automatically adjusts by area, since conforming loans have a maximum limit set by FHA that varies from area to area. So, someone in Cache Valley with a $700,000 or even $400,000 home will not qualify. Their loan is above the limits, and is considered a "jumbo loan", therefore nonconforming and ineligible for either of the programs listed above. To see what the limits are for where you live look here.

So what do you think? Does the conforming limitation unfairly impact minorities and low income families who should have qualified for a prime loan but were sold a different product by their lender?

Give that home a snorkel.

I want to play a little game called spot the swimmers. Take a gander at this. Look at the average listing price, then look at the average home sales price. Some of the states really shine..... do you see it yet? Look at Wyoming, for example.

Avg List price: $610,035 Avg Sales Price $130,702

So, the average listing price is 4.67 times higher than the average sales price?!

Utah: Average List $486,538 Average Sale $129,000 3.77 times.

Idaho: Average List $357,490 Average Sale $85,000 4.2 times.

Anyone see a pattern?

Why is the average list price so high when the average sale price is so low?
What does this tell us about the type of homes that are having "problems" right now?

Well, there are a couple of possibilities here, so lets toss some around. Perhaps there are more homes for sale in big cities that had higher prices and are experiencing the largest decline in home values. With a few exceptions this seems to hold true.

There is another possibility here: that there is a higher concentration of expensive homes on the market across the state. I used a fairly crude method to test this. I jumped back to the trulia.com website and pulled up the data on Cache county , and compared this to the data on population pulled from this site on area codes and inputting those at the and the census bureau fact finder.

Then I put the numbers in a little chart so I could see the population of each zip code (this information is dated, last census was 9 years ago but no other data by zip code is available)compared to the average list price and number of homes that are on the market. One quick thing I want to point out, the LOWER the per person number, the more homes are being sold in the area per person.

The zip code with the most homes for sale per person is 84325 with just over 1 home being sold for every 32 people compared to the overall average of one home per every 103 people in the zip code! It also has the third highest average sales price. The two zip codes with the highest average sales prices are just above and below the average per capita. The next 3 are all well below average (meaning more homes on the market than you would expect for their population). This is interesting to me, since it seems to imply that the wealthiest families (those in the 2 zip codes with the highest average home price)seem to have an average number of homes for sale. Just below that, in what could be termed wannabe wealthy zip codes we have a disproportionate number of homes for sale (especially in that number three slot). I have to wonder if this might hint at a group of people who got in over their heads. People who perhaps wanted to appear well to do, and are now reaping the consequences.

One thing is for sure, being upside down or "underwater" on their loans is something we are sure to see more of. The washington post indicated that 1 in every 5 homeowners now owes more on their loan than the home is actually worth . I plan on taking a closer look at that article more indepth on my next post. In the mean time I plan on waiting a month and then doing this little exercise again to see how home sales are doing for each zip code. (Note, this does not include homes that are for sale by owner, or by a builder who has not posted them on the MLS.)

While we wait, maybe we should invest in some fins and a snorkel?