Reaction to the Action

Obama has finally opened up and showed us the guts of his housing plan. USA Today does a fair job of outlining the details. This is a program that appears to have some potential, and addresses three core areas, refinances, loan modifications, and lender incentives.

What I like:

The loan refinancing is only available to those with good payment histories. We are rewarding those who have acted responsibly and paid their mortgage in a timely manner. This is the sort of thing that we should have been doing in the first place.

The loan modification requires proof of hardship. Those who simply overextended themselves will not qualify. The borrower must prove they can sustain payments on the new loan. The cost of the home has a maximum, so we won't see 5 million dollar mansion qualify. The plan is proactive and can be used BEFORE they fall into default.

Incentives to servicers have a set dollar value. I like this because it keeps them prioritizing high cost loans over lower value loans. The loan is reduced to 31% of income, IE affordable terms, through reducing the first mortgage and extending the loan term.

What I don't like/see:

No requirement for financial education. This is the magic wand approach. We fix the loan but do nothing to help the borrower keep themselves out of this situation in the first place.

The dollar cap on homes is still pretty high, and does not appeared to be adjusted by where they live. Lots of homes in LA cost more than $720,000...none of them will qualify. In contrast I am guessing 98% of the homes in Cache Valley would meet this requirement. We shouldn't be modifying a mortgage on a $700,000 home in Cache Valley!! It may be a regular home in LA, but here that is a mansion. FHA already has loan limits that are established and adjusted by area, why on earth aren't we using those, (or some percentage of them, like 120% of the limit or something?). Any time the government takes a blanket approach it is both unequal and unfair, and families lose.

Dealing with lenders/servicers is all carrot no stick. Asking them to play nice is fine and dandy, what about legislation that penalizes lenders who give loans that are blatantly unaffordable/inappropriate? Many of the subprime loans that were issued over the last 5 years were to families who would have qualified for prime loans.....but the lenders don't make as much money that way.....

Conclusion:
Anything is better than nothing. While it begins to address the problem we have today, it does nothing to lay the framework for avoiding this in the future. We are seeing more reaction to the problem, rather than action that leads us to a more permanent solution.

Home sweet home

It used to be that the American Dream meant being able to come to America, from anywhere, and through hard work achieve your dream, what ever that may be. You could work as whatever, believe whatever, and achieve whatever. Somehow, part of that dream has been redefined to include the house and picket fence.

What does it mean for homeowners now? How have families used their homes (besides for shelter) during the time that lead up to the current crisis? Demos has provided some insight on what is happening with homeowners and why we should be concerned in:

A House of Cards: Refinancing the American Dream. Borrowing to Make Ends Meet

I want to look at a couple of the highlights and share why I think there may be some concerns.

From 1973 to 2004 homeowner equity fell from 68.3% to 55%. The number of people in homes was up, but they owned less as a whole. The real scary thing is the market had not bottomed out yet. Where is our equity at now?

Where did the equity go when times were good? From 2001 to 2005 alone households cashed out $715 billion dollars in home equity. 51% of who pulled money used some/all of it to pay for other debts, and 25% used it to pay for consumer purchases.

So what? People pulled money out of their homes to pay off credit card debt or buy a car. Thats a good thing, right? They pay less in interest on a home equity loan than they would with a credit card or car loan, so what is the big deal?

Well, its not just falling equity.....from 1998 to 2004 the average credit card debt held by households increased from $2,768 to $5,129. Our savings rate decreased, to near nothing, and is at the lowest it has been since the great depression.

Surely these numbers reflect young people who bought into home when they couldn't really afford it and had to put money on a credit card to make ends meet. But the older generation, those getting ready to retire or already retired, they are not in the same boat. Right? Well, on average people over 65 only have $4,906 in credit card debt, a bit below our overall average noted above. The real concern? While the overall average increased roughly 85%, the average for elderly increased 194% over the same time frame.

Dropping property values may be a boon to elderly trying to pay rising taxes, but it certainly does them no favors if they were hoping to use a reverse mortgage to make ends meet. Higher health care costs, more debt (as evidenced by rising credit balances), and likely depleted retirement funds from the tanking market may be placing our elderly at greater risks to make ends meet.

The elderly to be are at risk as well. Baby boomers lead the pack in refinancing their homes and undercutting their equity. As they near retirement not only will they face high health care costs and depleted retirement accounts, they will probably still have a house payment. If they truly retire, and their income goes down accordingly, how exactly do they plan to make ends meet?

While the government discusses bailing companies out and dithers over what to do with homes in foreclosure there is little discussion over the only slightly more distant future. Give the economy a couple of years to recover (and time for Alt A, interest only, and ARM loans to default) and they seem to think we will see the silver lining on the clouds. Maybe. If we don't prepare households to utilize their homes wisely and manage their debt payments we may find storm still going strong.

Demos isn't quiet about what they think should be done. I am not saying I completely agree with all of their suggestions, but here is the gist:

Enact a Borrower’s Security Act: limiting interest rates and fees on credit cards. (Still very relevant, could have a big impact on struggling families)

Maintain Existing Bankruptcy Laws: They were up for review. The new legislation is a bit tighter, and better (in my opinion). Demos would have liked to have seen it remain the same.

Address Real Estate Practices: Fight appraisal fraud (Better late than never, though two years ago would have been a good start)

It will be interesting to see what the new administration does. Hopefully Obama will at least consider some of these issues. Whether we help families now, or let them default/declare bankruptcy later, one thing is for sure: taxpayers will continue to foot the bill. Stronger polices for families in financial distress may be the order of the day.